Total Driver Performance Post Indy 500 is Entering GOAT Status
Hey Dad I can't see real good is that A.J. Foyt over there?
Alex Palou got his first (most likely of many) career oval win and first Indy 500 (also most likely of many) victory - now winning five of the first six races of the 2025 NTT Indycar Series. While the point of TDP is not to crown a GOAT, the similarities between Palou’s 2025 and A.J Foyt’s 1964 USAC seasons are eerie.
That season A.J Foyt won 10 of 13 championship races (while only getting two poles) and won the Indy 500, the second of his career. Is it possible Alex Palou wins nearly 77% of the races this season? Yes - and all 26 other drivers fear that. Honestly it could be more. Palou is seemingly untouchable right now much like Foyt was in ‘64.
In qualifying Palou leads with an impressive 3.67 average with Scott McLaughlin and Christian Lungaard tied with an 8 average through six races. O’Ward is next up with a 8.67 average with Colton Herta, who has been near or at the top of qualifying each week until the Indy 500 (29th) has dropped slightly and now has a 8.83 average. 500 Pole-sitter Robert Shwartzman moved himself up to a 20.17 average from 24.
The finishing position averages also, obviously, go in Palou’s favor where he now has an insane 1.17 average finishing position. That’s…wild. After finishing 3rd at the 500, Pato O’Ward is the next highest with a 6.17 average finishing position with Christian Lungaard at 6.5 and Kyle Kirkwood 6.6. Now, you may be thinking to yourself, “Matt, what’s up with all the purple/no-counts?” Great question - lets run through it. McLaughlin’s crash before the race is counted, so you’ll notice the 30th finishing position. Dixon faced a mechanical issue, so that does not count. Marcus Ericsson got screwed over by his team and sent to the back for a penalty, so I am not counting that against him - same goes for his teammate Kyle Kirkwood. Josef Newgarden also faced a mechanical failure so his 22nd place finish won’t count in the TDP metric and Simpson was hit by Kyle Larsen so that will also not count. Sting Ray Robb was a tougher call, but was not touched by either driver and I did count the crash for him (a 23rd finishing position really does not affect his numbers to this point at all). Rossi also suffered a mechanical failure so that will not count with the VeeKay and Shwartzman crashes counting and hurting their averages.
So now the good stuff, Total Driver Performance. Of course Alex Palou leads the way and remains the only driver with a positive TDP. Palou is averaging 2.5 positions gained per race and 51 points per race - add that to his leading Avg Qual and Avg Fin gives him a whopping .6263 TDP.
Keep looking at the average positions gained/lost column - Kyle Kirkwood is dominating that category with 7.07 positions gained per race average in the five races he’s been counted for. Kirkwood sits second in TDP with -.0014. Next up is Palou’s teammate Scott Dixon - another driver with a great positions gained average of 5.43. Dixon ranks third in TDP with a -.1044 ranking. Pato O’Ward, who sits second in the NTT Indycar standings, comes 4th in TDP with a -.1128.
I want to call out Colton Herta - for much of the beginning of this season he was ranked dead last and near the bottom, but just made a large jump up the rankings. His qualifying average of 8.83 is great, but he needs to keep improving his finishing position average (9.6) and get this positions gained/lost average into positive territory - moving up 15 positions during the 500 helps. Taking Herta’s spot in disappointing territory is Marcus Ericsson who sits second to last in the ranking, mostly because he’s averaging 3.25 positions lost per race - TDP did not count either Indy race this month for his results. He’s just not been consistent on race day.